Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 20.792160 22.691300 24.802334 27.347070 30.365021 33.874369 38.332359
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 18.033656 20.528300 23.517726 27.451699 32.637572 39.476718 49.645567
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.223761 19.043993 22.619520 27.665466 34.948208 45.757047 64.746274
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 14.885818 17.887231 21.863370 27.804931 37.084186 52.485298 84.855958
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.728370 16.784553 20.969460 27.509213 38.408995 58.391358 108.766258
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.892533 16.002505 20.387615 27.526243 40.187693 65.897562 146.309974
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 12.131321 15.236293 19.716891 27.257409 41.354876 72.762633 196.376653
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 11.482122 14.565020 19.102357 26.962730 42.374074 79.918363 272.480483
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.935551 13.994355 18.576248 26.726212 43.437860 87.971489 405.653727
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.472636 13.509874 18.133688 26.564018 44.615213 97.376078 688.511344
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.975840 12.939572 17.501884 25.964635 44.655386 103.251375 1166.254224
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.844781 12.914207 17.749492 27.051886 49.041458 130.522078 999177.702839
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.479529 12.507997 17.336745 26.809514 50.062203 145.490909 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.195045 12.211926 17.087805 26.867780 51.959135 169.242122 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.954221 11.970371 16.912491 27.054809 54.329159 202.947936 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.723337 11.730997 16.721110 27.180636 56.599116 245.485494 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.451548 11.410866 16.362383 26.892314 57.459120 280.611612 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.241260 11.180746 16.149839 26.907089 59.404073 343.834765 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.009645 10.904422 15.834502 26.647634 60.307408 404.010329 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.790329 10.639018 15.523231 26.363637 61.059340 476.930360 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.591903 10.400289 15.247714 26.135751 61.992935 580.070540 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.414209 10.189193 15.011967 25.979481 63.205410 740.127044 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.197121 9.903633 14.620580 25.401968 62.458831 813.444442 NaN